{"id":81,"date":"2011-02-06T10:48:55","date_gmt":"2011-02-06T09:48:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/?p=81"},"modified":"2024-10-14T14:39:59","modified_gmt":"2024-10-14T12:39:59","slug":"doomgloom-for-mnos-the-writings-on-the-wall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/2011\/02\/06\/doomgloom-for-mnos-the-writings-on-the-wall\/","title":{"rendered":"Doom<span class=\"amp\">&amp;<\/span>Gloom for MNOs: The Writing\u2019s on the&nbsp;Wall"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><\/p><center>\n\n<div class=\"ngg-galleryoverview ngg-slideshow\" id=\"ngg-slideshow-fc6677337f0b376543875af913ef06b4-16418683880\" data-gallery-id=\"fc6677337f0b376543875af913ef06b4\" style=\"max-width: 500px; max-height: 380px;\">\n\n \t<div id=\"ngg-image-0\" class=\"ngg-gallery-slideshow-image\" style=\"height:380px\">\n\n        <a href=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/asiapacific.gif\" title data-src=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/asiapacific.gif\" data-thumbnail=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/thumbs\/thumbs_asiapacific.gif\" data-image-id=\"8\" data-title=\"asiapacific\" data-description class=\"shutterset_fc6677337f0b376543875af913ef06b4\">\n\n            <img data-image-id=\"8\" title alt=\"asiapacific\" src=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/asiapacific.gif\" style=\"max-height: 360px;\">\n        <\/a>\n\n        <\/div> \n<div id=\"ngg-image-1\" class=\"ngg-gallery-slideshow-image\" style=\"height:380px\">\n\n        <a href=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/northamerica.gif\" title data-src=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/northamerica.gif\" data-thumbnail=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/thumbs\/thumbs_northamerica.gif\" data-image-id=\"9\" data-title=\"northamerica\" data-description class=\"shutterset_fc6677337f0b376543875af913ef06b4\">\n\n            <img data-image-id=\"9\" title alt=\"northamerica\" src=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/northamerica.gif\" style=\"max-height: 360px;\">\n        <\/a>\n\n        <\/div> \n<div id=\"ngg-image-2\" class=\"ngg-gallery-slideshow-image\" style=\"height:380px\">\n\n        <a href=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/westerneuropean.gif\" title data-src=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/westerneuropean.gif\" data-thumbnail=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/thumbs\/thumbs_westerneuropean.gif\" data-image-id=\"10\" data-title=\"westerneuropean\" data-description class=\"shutterset_fc6677337f0b376543875af913ef06b4\">\n\n            <img data-image-id=\"10\" title alt=\"westerneuropean\" src=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-content\/gallery\/endofprofit\/westerneuropean.gif\" style=\"max-height: 360px;\">\n        <\/a>\n\n        <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\t\t<!-- Thumbnails Link -->\n\t<div class=\"slideshowlink\" style=\"max-width: 500px;\">\n        <a href=\"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/2011\/02\/06\/doomgloom-for-mnos-the-writings-on-the-wall\/nggallery\/thumbnails\">[Show picture list]<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n<\/center>&nbsp;\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">These graphs show when carriers might expect to see costs exceed revenues, based on a new <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tellabs.com\/markets\/tlab_end-of-profit_study.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"broken_link\">Tellabs study<\/a>. Currently, stock markets don\u2019t reflect these predictions, with Forward <span class=\"caps\">PE<\/span> ratios at about&nbsp;10.<br>\nImportant assumptions of the underlying model are: a traffic growth of seven fold by 2015 for both voice and data combined, with a revenue decline per gigabyte of 80\u201385%; and data transport using only <span class=\"caps\">GSM<\/span>\/<span class=\"caps\">3G<\/span> technologies (<span class=\"caps\">HSPA<\/span>\/<span class=\"caps\">HSPA<\/span>+), since <span class=\"caps\">LTE<\/span> will not be widely deployed by 2015. There also are some questionable assumptions: a flat-rate pricing model (telcos will lobby their way out of this trap) and a high percentage of data offloading onto indoor networks, a key assumption of the model, being a big unknown.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mobile telcos will experience massive profit compressions in the future, redefining the value chain that has been in existence for almost two decades: network equipments and mobile terminal manufacturers with almost zero profit margins, whilst MNOs enjoyed high margins. Profits are migrating toward new smartphone services, but that it\u2019s a history for another post.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; These graphs show when carriers might expect to see costs exceed revenues, based on a new Tellabs study. Currently, stock markets don\u2019t reflect these predictions, with Forward <span class=\"caps\">PE<\/span> ratios at about&nbsp;10. Important assumptions of the underlying model are: a traffic growth of seven fold by 2015 for both voice and data combined, with&nbsp;[\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[4,3,10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1697,"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81\/revisions\/1697"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cerezo.name\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}