Daily Archives: 03/02/2011

Rich&King: Solving the Founder’s Dilemma

Every tech entrepreneur faces the same dilemma: raise as much as capital as needed to grow as fast as possible, while avoiding dilution. The tradeoff was quantified by Noam Wasserman in a study of 460 startups, showing that in general, refusing to release control only harms the business and the entrepreneur itself:

The Rich-vs-King Tradeoff

Even so, entrepreneurs, hopeful creatures by nature, keep on searching whatever hack that gives them an edge to reduce dilution. But the biggest hack is, and always will be, possessing perfect time-to-market skills, the entrepreneurial quality per se. And whilst founders usually manage to keep 5–15% shares after IPO, some do much better, vg: Bill Gates(40.2%), Pierre Omidyar(30%) and Larry Ellison(27.5%). Another interesting case is Google, where founders keep control using Class B shares with super-voting rights (1‑to-10) to offset that each one only managed to keep 13.4% of the company, and Netscape, where Jim Clark kept 25.5% of the shares vs. 2.6% of Marc Andreessen (maybe it has something to do with Clark keeping only 3% after IPO of Silicon Graphics, his previous startup).  But it’s outside the tech industry, where we find the quirkiest scheme to keep control, Kamprad’s IKEA.

Mobile Platforms: The Future isn’t Cast in Stone

Android is in exponential growth as shown in the next graph,

Canalys figures for Worldwide smartphone shipments

But remember, it’s a platform only 2.5 years old, so let first PC-history be our guide:

 

 

 

 

And the final result of that era of computing, summarized in the following graph showing total market share as percentages,

PC market share through the years

And even though prediction markets are being used within corporations to peer into the future of these questions, they are of no use for making public predictions about future platform market shares due to their very low volumes and the enormous cash on the balance sheets of the tech companies involved, that is, the results would be too easy to subvert to ever be trusted.

So beware! Keep your development options open!