Let’s imagine that the desktop OS market starts from scratch, with no strings attached. That is, neither lock-in effects nor switching costs; zeroed learning curve effects, resetted economies of scale and scope and absent network effects; just free-entry without any of the preceding oligopolistic and monopolistic market structures.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we could find a natural experiment, not a thought one, in which to observe the resultant market shares? Could we know how would they most likely rank?
Yes, we can. It’s the mobile OS market!
- Android (Linux)
- iOS (Apple)
- Windows Phone/Mobile (Microsoft)
In other words, the desktop OS market, in reverse order.